I started this blog in June 2007 asking these questions: Are we in a massive asset bubble that will blow up in our faces ??? - ANSWERED YES ! Is western and particularly British society on the verge of social collapse??? What are the best common sense long term investment strategies to keep you rich? When will consumption/debt bubble economics end and a real savings/production economy begin ???

Wednesday 16 September 2009

YES - You can predict a recession ! Paul Francis Cwik PhD Dissertation 2004


[click to enlarge]


Unlike other schools of economic thought Austrian Economists can make useful predictions that can help individuals and businesses:



AN INVESTIGATION OF INVERTED YIELD CURVES
AND ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS:


This dissertation presents an answer to why the yield curve tends to invert one year before a recession.

http://mises.org/etexts/cwik-dissertation.pdf

Even in 1967, the one time there appeared to be a false positive, there was a mini recession (single quarter of contraction).

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