I started this blog in June 2007 asking these questions: Are we in a massive asset bubble that will blow up in our faces ??? - ANSWERED YES ! Is western and particularly British society on the verge of social collapse??? What are the best common sense long term investment strategies to keep you rich? When will consumption/debt bubble economics end and a real savings/production economy begin ???

Tuesday, 29 December 2009

The British economy is dead

Quite frankly, it’s very hard to see how Britain can get itself out of the current pickle without causing itself and its citizens a massive amount of pain.

With the billions of pounds of debt and the billions of pounds spent each year on unaffordable and bankruptcy-inducing social programmes (such as the National Health Service) there is absolutely no way it can get itself out of the mire without doing something drastic.

It can’t merely hoped for an economic recovery. After all, where is the economic growth going to come from?


Inflation will finish it off in the end:


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Sunday, 27 December 2009

The Government is swallowing the economy

More people depend on the state than those who provide it with the money the state needs to meet its promises. Most of Europe long ago passed the 50% threshold with more people depending on government than the private sector, but even in the United States – long reigning as the bastion of capitalism, free-markets and limited government – 58% of the population derives their income from government at some level.


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Thursday, 24 December 2009

Freedom - Daniel Hannan and Ron Paul

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Wednesday, 23 December 2009

How an Economy Grows and Why It Doesn't (by Irwin Schiff)

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Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt

The Truth !

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Wednesday, 16 December 2009

Sunday, 13 December 2009

Bill Black: US housing market is fraud from top to bottom

Numerous symptoms of an economy killing itself with artificially low interest rates. END THE FED !

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Monday, 7 December 2009

Austro-Libertarian thought circa 1975

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Sunday, 6 December 2009

Ayn Rand gets to the heart of what's wrong with the US and UK today



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Is China decoupling from the US ?

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Saturday, 5 December 2009

John Maynard Keynes: Villain

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Friday, 4 December 2009

The world's biggest bubble blower !

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Wednesday, 2 December 2009

The climate bubble goes bang !

In economics, the Jevons paradox (sometimes called the Jevons effect) is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource. It is historically called the Jevons Paradox as it ran counter to popular intuition. However, the situation is well understood in modern economics. In addition to reducing the amount needed for a given use, improved efficiency lowers the relative cost of using a resource – which increases demand and speeds economic growth, further increasing demand. Overall resource use increases or decreases depending on which effect predominates.


Can we really believe politicians when they talk about their concern for what kind of weather our great grandchildren might experience?

How and why Margaret Thatcher invented global warming.

George Hunt was there at the start and knows Maurice Strong's Real Agenda:

MIT Climatologist Richard Lindzen on the Politics of Global Warming:

Crimes of the climate Mafia:

Nobody is interested in solutions if they don't think there's a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis. - Al Gore 2006

Reconstruction of the 1850 to present day warming trend from Met Office data.

Inside the 'hockey stick', the last 10 years:

To disprove the `Hockey Stick', it is sufficient to merely demonstrate conclusively the existence of the Medieval Warm Period and/or the Little Ice Age in proxy and/or historical evidence from around the world. According to the `falsifiability' principle of science, substantial physical evidence that contradicts a theory is sufficient to `falsify' that theory. To that end, `exhibits' of physical evidence are presented below to prove that not only is the `Hockey Stick' false, but that the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were not only very real - but also global in extent:


Lord Monckton on Climategate at the 2nd International Climate Conference from CFACT EUROPE on Vimeo.

Climategate: the final nail in the coffin of 'Anthropogenic Global Warming' :

Conspiracy, collusion in exaggerating warming data, possibly illegal destruction of embarrassing information, organised resistance to disclosure, manipulation of data, private admissions of flaws in their public claims and much more.



Phil Jones offers myriad reasons for not sharing data:


Lord Lawson, the former chancellor, has called for an independent inquiry into claims that leading climate change scientists manipulated data to strengthen the case for man-made global warming:


Dr. Tim Ball on the hacked CRU emails:

The torture of data to fit the results:

Mann (inventor of the Al Gore 'hockey stick') to be investigated by Penn State University:


Phil Jones (CRU head) steps down – pending independent review:


U. S. Senate Minority Report: More Than 700 International Scientists Dissent Over. Man-Made Global Warming Claims:


Lord Christopher Monckton, former science adviser to Margaret Thatcher, on Climategate and global warming:

The Great Global Warming Swindle:

BBC accused of institutional 'trendy left-wing bias':

The report also urged the BBC not to "close down the debate" on climate change, despite the corporation admitting that it no longer felt it necessary to justify equal space being given to opponents of the consensus on the issue.


Where did the medieval warm period go ???


Al Gore could become world's first carbon billionaire:


The Climate Science Isn't Settled
Confident predictions of catastrophe are unwarranted:


New paper from Lindzen demonstrates low climate sensitivity with observational data:


Christopher Monckton spent an entire hour on the Glenn Beck program today on the topic of global warming, skepticism, and the Copenhagen Treaty:


Ian Plimer Author and Professor in the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide
"Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science":


Does Dr. Holdren (Obama Science Tzar) have a worst-case bias in his interpretation of data?

" The effects of a new ice age on agriculture and the supportability of large human populations scarcely need elaboration here. Even more dramatic results are possible, however; for instance, a sudden outward slumping in the Antarctic ice cap, induced by added weight, could generate a tidal wave of proportions unprecedented in recorded history. "


'Cloud ship' scheme to deflect the sun's rays is favourite to cut global warming:

These clouds, it is predicted, would reflect around one or two per cent of the sunlight that would otherwise warm the ocean, thereby cancelling out the greenhouse effect caused by Carbon Dioxide emissions:

Man-made volcanoes may cool Earth:

THE Royal Society is backing research into simulated volcanic eruptions, spraying millions of tons of dust into the air, in an attempt to stave off climate change.

The society will this week call for a global programme of studies into geo-engineering — the manipulation of the Earth’s climate to counteract global warming — as the world struggles to cut greenhouse gas emissions.


In the 70's Environmentalists and left-wing politicians got DDT banned, 40 million people have died of malaria since then!


Bombshell UN Documents Outline Plan To Use Climategate Crooks In “End Run” Around National Sovereignty

Strategy papers call for United Nations to boss economies and erect world government under pretext of environmentalism:



Why is actor Ed Begley Jr still a fan of the 'Peer review' process even after the climategate emails show a conspiracy to shut sceptical scientists out ?

Bjorn Lomborg sets global priorities, global warming is at the bottom of the list:


Inconvenient History of Climate ‘Tipping Point’ Warnings:


The Story of Cap & Trade:

Hockey Stick Source code:


the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file:

Climate change hits Mars:


Toxic Seawater Fraud:

As the world’s seawater becomes more acidic due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, some shelled marine creatures may actually become bigger and stronger, according to a new study:


Internal EPA report on global climate change suggests "the hypothesis fails":

Why was Jones so afraid of the two MMs? Because they had debunked Mike's--or Michael Mann of Penn State University's--infamous "hockey stick" graph that supposedly offered proof positive that humans were warming the earth. It showed that global temperatures had remained flat for a millennium only to spike sharply in the 20th century following the industrial revolution. But McIntyre and McKitrick found that the innocent "tricks" that Mann was performing on the data were so riddled with methodological errors that even the IPCC was forced to remove the graph from its official reports:


NASA stonewalling freedom of information requests:

A Lot of Hot Air: How the Dinosaurs Grew So Monstrous:


Burt Rutan - Worried about asteroids ? What a nut job !


Armed UN Security Silences Journalist At Copenhagen - But don't worry, he's not from the Guardian:


Freeman Dyson on Global Warming's Bogus Climate Models and vegetation as a carbon sink:

Ozone Hoax, Not Hole:

Monckton tries and fails to reprogramme a sheeple from the church of greenpeace:

Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) issued a report claiming that the Hadley Center for Climate Change based at the headquarters of the British Meteorological Office in Exeter (Devon, England) had probably tampered with Russian-climate data:



The climate racket:


History of the Climatic Research Unit's quest for money:

CRU is in fact a business funded by soft money from big oil and the nuclear industry - The goal ? To kill cheap and plentiful coal which should be beating expensive peak oil and nuclear power:

Real Global Warming:

A story emerging out of Britain suggests “follow the money” may explain the enthusiasm of the United Nations to pursue caps on carbon emissions:


How can the world’s leading ‘climate official’ also be personally involved in so many organisations which stand to benefit from the IPCC’s recommendations ?


Nobody listens to the real climate change experts:

Scientists would rather change facts than their theories:

Al Gore's Friend Trapped by his own lies:

Don't act on co2 it is a con:

KUSI meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman, John Coleman explains the science and controversy surrounding Global Warming:


The men who invented global warming hate the human infestation:
Maurice Strong:

David Suzuki:

Stopping the Coming 'Greenhouse Effect' driven Ice Age:

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Friday, 6 November 2009

Irrational Exuberance

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Wednesday, 4 November 2009

A Critique of the Austrian School of Economics

The Austrian School does not believe that macroeconomic truth can be found via the scientific method. They believe that economics is not physics but rather the study of human action.

When all humans are chipped so that their behaviour can be measured, predicted and controlled the Austrian School will be redundant. Until then it will still be the best set of tools for analysing the macro-economy.

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Monday, 2 November 2009

Hayek on Keynes - Even Keynes had a problem with Keynesianism ?

In February 1975 Margaret Thatcher was elected leader of the British Conservative Party. The Institute of Economic Affairs arranged a meeting between Hayek and Thatcher in London soon after. During Thatcher's only visit to the Conservative Research Department in the summer of 1975, a speaker had prepared a paper on why the "middle way" was the pragmatic path the Conservative Party should take, avoiding the extremes of left and right. Before he had finished, Thatcher "reached into her briefcase and took out a book. It was Friedrich von Hayek's The Constitution of Liberty. Interrupting our pragmatist, she held the book up for all of us to see. 'This', she said sternly, 'is what we believe', and banged Hayek down on the table".


For Hayek's critiques of keynesianism see his book; A Tiger by the Tail: The Keynesian Legacy of Inflation in PDF at:


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Wednesday, 28 October 2009

Max Keiser - Goldman Sachs is the Enemy !

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Saturday, 24 October 2009

The First Peak Oil Recession ?

Several presenters at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) conference two weeks ago used measures of GDP to express the economy's tolerance limit for high oil prices.

David Murphy, a pioneer in net energy (EROI) research at SUNY, noted that major recessions are always associated with petroleum and offered this chart, suggesting that that oil expenditures over 5.5% of GDP lead to major recessions:



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Saturday, 26 September 2009

US house prices have fallen to 1988 levels when measured in gold !

The average (median) US house price peaked in 2005 at 490.5 ounces. The average house price is now 160.5 ounces (the 1988 level) and still falling !

The surprising fact revealed by the chart is that the 'real' house price boom happened between 1996 and 2001 when prices went from about 190 to 450 ounces of gold. During the 2000's prices were relatively stable !

The wealth that people thought they were getting via the boom in nominal dollar prices during the 2000s was all an illusion ! People really were getting richer in the 90s but the .com crash ended the boom and ever since massive government spending and ultra low interest rates have been needed to keep up the facade of growth and wealth creation.

Nominal dollar increases in asset prices ARE NOT wealth creating. You haven't made any money until you sell your asset (house, shares etc ...) and converted the 'profit' into gold. Increases in real(priced in gold) asset prices can make you rich. Nominal price increases due to inflation make you poor. Everyone in Zimbabwe is a millionaire !

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Friday, 25 September 2009


The free market and small govenment is the only solution. Print and bailout does not work, it just makes things worse:

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Julian Robertson: 15% inflation coming in the US ???

There will be no US Mrs Thatcher !

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The UK Buy-To-Let Slaughter is near !

Fergus Wilson, the former mathematics teacher dubbed Britain’s buy-to-let “King,” says he’s selling 700 rental properties before interest rate rises bring “slaughter” to landlords in the U.K. housing market.

Wilson, who together with his wife Judith rank among the 1,000 wealthiest Britons according to this year’s Sunday Times Rich List, said it was inevitable that interest rates would rise from a historic low, pummeling rental landlords.

“You’ve got a lot of people who have taken out a mortgage and are right up to their throats” in debt, said Wilson as he settled into a black armchair at a hotel in Maidstone, south- eastern England. “As soon as rates go up, they’re going to be slaughtered.”

more ...

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Historian Dr David Starkey on British Democracy

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Thursday, 24 September 2009

US on slippery slope to economic collapse

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Gold & Silver & China

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Monday, 21 September 2009

The wisdom of the youtube crowd

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Iran replaces Dollar with Euro in FX


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Deflationist Steve Keen

No growth or inflation without a debt jubilee ??? Wouldn't inflation kill debt ? Unlike Japan the west does not have bankruptcy taboos and can eventually kill its zombies. Japan is a very different production based economy. It can fund its borrowing, unlike the US or UK. Unlike Japan the US and UK will be forced to monetise their debt or massively raise interest rates or both

What if China doesn't believe there will be US deflation? What if there is some inflation shock, e.g. an attack on Iran pushing up the oil price? What if this panics China and Japan and they rush to get rid of their dollar holdings by 'buying up America' and flooding the economy with hot money ?
Panic is a sudden fear which dominates or replaces thinking and often affects groups of people or animals. Panics typically occur in disaster situations, or violent situations (such as robbery, home invasion, a shooting rampage, etc.) which may endanger the overall health of the affected group. The word panic derives from the Greek πανικός, "pertaining to Pan", the god of woods and fields who was the source of mysterious sounds that caused contagious, groundless fear in herds and crowds, or in people in lonely spots. Panic is also known as an acute case of anxiety.


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Sunday, 20 September 2009

It's Over !

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Saturday, 19 September 2009

Peter Schiff - You can have more government but not without killing the private sector and growth

Where do people think all the magic money comes from ???

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Friday, 18 September 2009

Ron Paul talks about the American power structure in 1988

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What Is Going on with China and Gold?

As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China. You could be jailed if caught with any in your possession. Beginning in 2009, in a stunning about-face, the central government removed all restrictions. In fact, as Mineweb and other sources report now it’s actively pushing folks to buy some personal metal, with China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, running news programs cum infomercials, letting the public know just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment.

It truly is as simple as can be, because every bank sells gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals. (Try to find the same the next time you make the trek down to Wells Fargo.) Mining companies are reportedly encouraging employees to convert some of their wages to gold on payday. Gold is traded in some form 24 hours a day. And paper proxies for the metal are also soaring in popularity.

There are persistent rumors that the export of silver has already been banned. Gold could be next.

Thus China, which only yesterday was the lowest per-capita consumer of gold in the world, is bidding to become the biggest. Some analysts believe it will pass India – the top dog since forever – as early as 2010. Clearly, the government believes the country is strengthened if everyone who can holds some hard currency.



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Thursday, 17 September 2009

It's Peter Schiff VS the WWE


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Peter Schiff VS Mish Shedlock by Max Keiser - inflation VS deflation debate

Mish won in 2008 but Schiff will win in the end !

Peter Schiff says DEFLATION will be BIG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . when you mesure it in gold !

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The UK debate on closing deficits via tax increases and spending cuts

The only solution is much much smaller government !

Why is the US not having this debate ???

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Wednesday, 16 September 2009

What happens when the US can't pay its debt ?

There are 3 options:
1) Honest default by forcing creditors to accept a lower coupon
2) Dishonest default via inflation
3) An Austro-hungary style breakup of the country leaving a rump with all the
debts and imperial bureaucracy.
4) The 4th option isn't really an option at all because it is so ridiculous. Pay back China by slashing spending and increasing taxes and telling the American people they must accept the pain because China must be paid back !

Option one is unlikely, it would mean the end of low interest borrowing for America

Option two must be the most likely but how do you get inflation in an economy that wants to deflate without sparking real inflation rates of 1% a month or more because of a debauched currency ???

Medium term Ben Bernanke has said he will not repeat the 'mistake' of the great depression by tightening monetary policy too soon. This fits nicely with 'inflate away the debt'. So the trend will most likely be an America that gets slowly poorer while China, Asia and South America get richer.

Longer term the US Dollar will loose its reserve currency status. Initially the reserve currency will be shared around with the Euro, Dollar and then maybe an unpegged Yuan all sharing a similar status. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium and oil must also play a big role in this transitional period.

History teaches that an empire can not last long after it enters political and economic decline.

The big problem with the American political system is that it was set up to create a deadlock to stop radical things happening. The problem is that radical things have happened (e.g. setting up of a central bank, removal of the gold standard, the setting up of a large welfare state and military industrial complex, the nation becoming the worlds biggest debtor etc ...). All the system did was to force change to be much slower, more incremental and more stealthy than in other countries. Thus no one is to blame for the terrible mistakes of policy.

But what if radical action is needed ? No party can win a land slide victory and get a mandate to do an option 4 or even an option 1. There will be no American Mrs Thatcher ! The 'end game' must surely be spiralling inflation, poverty and a flight of Americans to Europe, Asia, Canada, Australia and South America - along with their wealth.

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How long before Rick Santelli is thrown off CNBC ???

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The Empirical Evidence Against Big Government

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YES - You can predict a recession ! Paul Francis Cwik PhD Dissertation 2004

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Unlike other schools of economic thought Austrian Economists can make useful predictions that can help individuals and businesses:


This dissertation presents an answer to why the yield curve tends to invert one year before a recession.


Even in 1967, the one time there appeared to be a false positive, there was a mini recession (single quarter of contraction).

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Tuesday, 15 September 2009

Britain 'may be forced to bail out tax havens'

Why are there no 'stop the economic war' protests about this ???


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UK economists baffled by 1.6% inflation rate - still no deflation ???


"It is obviously another sticky number, inflation has surprised on the upside relative to expectations over the past few months. I think it is a combination of two things. Number one is sterling's impact on inflation and the fact is it has fallen very sharply from its peak in 2007 so that could have been putting upward pressure on import prices and core inflation."

"Secondly is the output gap. If it turns out that we have overestimated the trend rate of growth and the output gap might not actually be as weak as we thought it was ...inflationary pressures might be a little bit closer to the surface than we thought."


"Obviously it is not as good as expected and there is no tendency for core CPI rate of inflation to moderate which must be worrying to the MPC because it casts doubt on their forecasts. Looking at the components this month, we seem to have more of a bounce back in furniture and household equipment after seasonal July sales than is usual."


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Monday, 14 September 2009

New global taxes to be collected in a new global currency ?

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The False Deflation Panic!

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Public versus Private Salaries

The transfer of wealth from the private sector into the public sector.

If there isn't a revolution the UK and USA are doomed !

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The state is dead !

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After years of selling cheap goods to debt-fuelled Western consumers, China now has $2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves.

In a world of systemic instability, reserves mean power. Reserves mean you can defend your currency, stabilise your banking system and boost your economy without resorting to yet more borrowing – or, worse still, the printing press.

More than half of China's reserves are denominated in dollars. So when the dollar falls, China loses serious money. When you're talking about a dollar-reserve number involving 12 zeros, even a modest weakening of the greenback sees China's wealth takes a mighty hit.

In recent years, America has run massive budget and trade deficits, both of which put downward pressure on the dollar – so devaluing China's reserves. Beijing has remained tight-lipped, worried less about diplomatic niceties than the financial implications of voicing its concerns. If the markets thought China would buy less dollar-denominated debt going forward, the US currency would weaken further, compounding Beijing's wealth-loss.

more ...

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Sunday, 13 September 2009

Intro to Austrian Economics

Other Videos from Intro to Austrian Economics:

* The Socialist Calculation Debate - Lawrence White
* Money and Inflation - Steve Horwitz
* Methodology - Gene Callahan
* Menger and the Early Austrians - Paul Cwik
* Ludwig von Mises - Ivan Pongracic
* Israel Kirzner - Lawrence White
* F. A. Hayek - Daniel D’Amico
* Entreprenuership - Ivan Pongracic
* Creative Destruction - Paul Cwik
* Competition and Monopoly - Ivan Pongracic
* Business Cycles - Paul Cwik
* Austrians and the Other Schools - Paul Cwik
* Austrian Economics Today - Steve Horwitz

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Saturday, 12 September 2009

Unsustainable Debt

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Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire


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1790-1795 France and the destruction of the Asignot

There always needs to be just a little more inflation of the money supply and everything will be fine !




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Peter Schiff - No Deflation without a return to gold

Deflationists like Robert Prechter and Mish Shedlock are not factoring in runaway money printing (gold money history doesn't apply to a fiat money world)! When the UK and US can't borrow any more the only way to keep spending is money printing:

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In 1976 the UK put Keynesian economics in the dustbin of history - why did they pull it out ???

Back in 1976, then Labour Prime Minister Jim Callaghan told his own party conference: "We used to think you could spend your way out of recession … I tell you now in all candour that option no longer exists … In so far as it ever existed, it worked only to inject larger doses of inflation into the economy, followed by higher unemployment as the next step".


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Friday, 11 September 2009

Dr. Michael Hudson - The Land Problem



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A Reply to Georgist Criticisms by Murray N. Rothbard

Georgism, named after Henry George (1839-1897), is a philosophy and economic ideology that holds that everyone owns what they create, but that everything found in nature, most importantly land, belongs equally to all of humanity. Henry George is best known for his argument that the economic rent from land should be shared equally by society rather than falling into hands of private individuals. Most early advocacy groups described themselves as Single Taxers, and George endorsed this as being an accurate description of the movement's main political goal – the replacement of all taxes with a land value tax.

Fred Harrison - The modern Georgist:





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Thursday, 10 September 2009

Austrian vs. Neoclassical Analytics

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How The Federal Reserve Bought The Economics Profession

The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has found.

This dominance helps explain how, even after the Fed failed to foresee the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression, the central bank has largely escaped criticism from academic economists. In the Fed's thrall, the economists missed it, too.

"The Fed has a lock on the economics world," says Joshua Rosner, a Wall Street analyst who correctly called the meltdown. "There is no room for other views, which I guess is why economists got it so wrong."


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