IT takes a plucky writer to admit he is wrong, particularly when there is a certain type of reader out there – usually anonymous, sometimes using joined-up writing – who is happy to tell me I am wrong every week.
But I have been wrong, so far at least, on oil. High oil prices, one of the factors that have complicated the task of the Bank of England and its fellow central banks, are still with us, having climbed back above $70 a barrel in recent weeks. Last week they remained close to that level. Futures markets suggest $60-$70-a-barrel oil for the foreseeable future.
My hopes were raised earlier this year when prices dipped briefly below $50 a barrel, not far above the $40 level I had said was sustainable in the long-term. But the market was just teasing, and prices were soon on their way back up again.
So this is a good time to revisit oil, and to ask the question: Will prices ever come down again?
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Friday 8 June 2007
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